Coronavirus: on lifting orders

First, I'm not at all into conspiracy. I am though very much into understanding personal and social phenomena with valid and reliable data. I've tried my adult life not to jump to conclusions without good information. In fact, in the face of no good information I'm quite comfortable saying "I don't know" or "based on the information I have..."

I also believe there is tremendous value in making decisions and living life in an informed, mindful manner.

Here's some food for thought. Be very careful how you interpret information being given out by organizations. Most are adept at "branding" and "messaging." That often means you are getting the information they present to you through a marketing filter. What you're being told is what they want you to know in the context of what's good for their organization.

For example: we're in lockdown/quarantine and there's discussion at the federal level about lifting those orders. Without on demand testing and/or a vaccine, what makes going out in public in crowds any different now than a month ago?

Also, there is some data available on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. But, HOW and WHERE infections are occurring has not been made available to the public. Wouldn't you like to know if there are public places that are showing a trend for contraction of the coronavirus? For example, shouldn't we know if people are contracting the coronavirus by going to drive thrus or the grocery?

I present this food for thought because organizations and agencies are making decisions for you. Are those organizations operating in their best interests or your best interests? Are the decisions to be made based on finances or based on what's best for the health of their employees, clients, or even the general population?

Do your best to stay informed. Your health and the health of your family may depend on it.

New coronavirus (covid-19) cases in Daviess County, Kentucky

Update: December 15, 2020

In an effort to reach a broader audience, I've been providing regular covid-19 updates on a Facebook Page that I've created. Until further notice those updates are posted to the Facebook Page here: Owensboro: Managing Covid-19

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Update June 10, 2020

My last presentation of local coronavirus data included the addition of the moving average measure. That May 20 post indicated a previous two week decline of covid-19 cases in Owensboro-Daviess County.

Over the past 7-10 days national, state, and some local media have been reporting an increase in cases in several states, including Kentucky. This is precisely why it is important to look at this type of data at the local level.

As of yesterday (June 9th) Owensboro-Daviess County continues to see a stable, declined rate of new cases of coronavirus/covid-19.

*Note: data are not included for several days in late May and a few dates in early June. In late May Governor Andy Beshear 's office changed how they were holding covid-19 media briefings and how they were presenting new case data. I also cannot go back to review any press briefings to retrieve the missing information.

As a matter of record I'd also like to include a link and text of some comments made on Facebook after the Daviess County Judge Executive was brought into discussion. That Facebook post can be found here:  https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10159064952081554&set=a.10151591660976554&type=3&theater

The main comment reply I'd like to include follows:

As I draft this comment I first want to note that Arnie tagged Al, not me. I'm not really seeking anything. I understand that so much data can lead to data overload. I'm a Sociologist and dealing with data is part of my profession. All I have done here is taken the only regularly publicly reported local data and graphed it over time. As has been well noted in the public health community, looking at data over time with this particular public health issue is important due to the time of contraction, dispersion, and contagious infection. When I began tracking this data longitudinally (over time) back in mid March there was no public source of Daviess County data available. You are correct Al, the hospital and public health department do post their data on their social media and online. I have not yet though seen it anywhere in longitudinal form. Daily data is certainly useful but what does daily data mean in the context of the previous day, the previous week, or the previous two weeks? And certainly those issues of where we stand in terms of a trend (currently being couched as a 14 day trend) are deemed critical in how political decisions are made regarding social distancing and reopening the economy and society. I asked early on for access to the data but the data at that time was believed to have not been accurate. I respected that conclusion and certainly did not want to get in the way of the very important work that needed to occur locally in the early stages of this pandemic. You and other stakeholders working closely on this issue may very well be discussing the trend among yourselves but I also feel it's very important for the community to see what is the trend. Trend data is being analyzed at the federal and state level. I personally want to know what is going on at the local level because what happens at the state and national level may not reflect local realities. Because I couldn't get access to local public data and because I understand the importance of looking at this longitudinally, I started tracking it with the data for which I had access.

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Update, May 14, 2020: trend data

Here's a look at the trend lines of 3 2 week segments (6 weeks) of new coronavirus cases in Daviess County.

It's a very stable line for the first four weeks, followed by a spike then a general downturn the past 7 days. This is encouraging.

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Update, April 25, 2020: trend data

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Update: As of April 25, 2020 there have been 205 deaths in Kentucky due to the coronavirus. Ninety five (95), or 46% of those deaths stem from people in long term care facilities.


Update: As of April 20, 2020 there have been 154 deaths in Kentucky due to the coronavirus. Fifty nine (59), or 38% of those deaths stem from people in long term care facilities.

Update: As of April 14, 2020, there have been 115 deaths in Kentucky due to the coronavirus. Thirty four (34), or 30% of those deaths stem from people in long term care facilities.

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Looking at data over time (longitudinally) helps us to track the trends in increase, stabilization, or decline in cases. Much of the federal and state level data looks at covid-19 cases longitudinally. Unfortunately, comprehensive, longitudinal public data about coronavirus cases in Owensboro-Daviess County does not exist.

I have collected the following information from watching and recording daily new cases as stated by Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear during daily press conferences beginning March 19, 2020.

Because the state data is sometimes updated the following data may or may not reflect exact official numbers for Daviess County.

I fully understand the variety of issues with testing and whether the new cases data accurately reflects the amount of coronavirus infections in the population. But, this is the only publically accessible data that can be examined for trends.

The "Projections" tab below contains the projection for hospitalizations in Daviess County.