Covid-19 data analysis wrap up

I began tracking covid-19 when it first became visible in Kentucky in March of 2020. I began tracking this data to make informed decisions for my family and anyone else that felt it of value. Early on I used covid-19 data based on official media reports from Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear. In those early weeks there were no local entities providing reliable information to the public and there was little by way of offering good public health advice.

Since March 2020 many institutions and academics around the United States and the world have recognized the need for collecting good data and making it available to the public. While early on we did have some state and county level information, I recognized that covid-19 was having different impacts from locality to locality. While it was important to have information from the national and state-level, I felt it necessary to not only have local data but to have an understanding of that data. Simply put, what was happening in New York or Florida was not necessarily happening in Owensboro-Daviess County.

In the spirit of openness and transparency I created a Facebook page on May 17, 2020: Owensboro: Managing Covid-19. I initially began that page to collect peoples’ stories about how they were managing covid-19. I was transparent about my intentions to collect that information as historical record and for students in my future sociology courses. Soon thereafter I decided to start publishing my data analysis on that Facebook page to make it completely accessible to the general public.

It's my experience in Owensboro-Daviess County that we often times do not seek quality data and we also do not always make decisions based on quality data. This issue can be found not only in the general public but within organizations and institutions and how they communicate or do not communicate with the general public. Unfortunately I find that data analysis of the type that I provided is not valued in the community.  

Given that the availability of data has come so far over the past year and any person interested in learning more about new cases and trends can access data, today I’m announcing that I am going to scale back my efforts of providing this data analysis to the Owensboro-Daviess County community. Given the rate of increase of vaccinations and the increased availability of good information, I feel the local general public is at a better position to be better informed as we continue to work to manage covid-19.  

I firmly believe that in order to make good decisions we need good data. Good data may not satisfy a political viewpoint but good data can help us make good decisions. We did and still do have an opportunity to understand our local dynamic and make better decisions for ourselves. Making better decisions not only involves the physical health of individuals, but also the mental health and economic well being of our community. We are better off when we make decisions based upon good information rather than the political winds that may blow. Those political winds blow in schools, businesses, elected offices, and even in the healthcare community.

The United States currently has an administration that is providing more focus on making data available to the public and focusing on public health science. As a result there are many websites that not only report national data, but there's very good data on many websites even about the local level. These topics range from testing, test positivity, new cases, number of tests, hospital admissions, ICU occupation rates, and more.

As always, if you need any assistance on better understanding this type of data, feel free to contact me. If I can't answer your questions I can help point you in the right direction to get the best information available. The best information might not reveal what you want to hear, but it will give you a better handle on the truth.


As of this posting below are two websites with a wealth of data:

CDC Covid Tracker
https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#county-view

Johns Hopkins University and Medicine Coronavirus Resource Center
https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/

Some thoughts on the social psychological impact of 2020: emotional dehydration and collective trauma

I've been on something of a rollercoaster of experiences the past several months and it's given me pause to think about the social psychological impact of 2020. Given the breadth of impact I think just about anyone can find something to relate to in these ideas.

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Earlier this summer, after spending several months already in a form of lockdown, it struck me that I was feeling a sense of illusion. I recall discussing this with my immediate family. They too echoed similar sentiments. “Things just seem weird.” 

For all intents and purposes I’ve been a professional Sociologist for almost 25 years. I’ve spent that time doing research and in academia. I have a good eye for understanding social experiences and how they impact the sense of self. This sense of “feeling weird” was a sensation, if you will, I found unique. I found it to be beyond a similar term in the field, “anomie.”

Particularly since March 2020, there has been so much for mindful people to absorb. I say “mindful people” because I believe the psychological impact of the many stressors experienced as a result of covid-19, social unrest, and matters related to the presidential election has hit mindful people more deeply than those that live life largely with blinders. Given the limitations of my willingness to explore that in depth in this piece, let’s throw all of these largely external stressors into one bag. Now, let’s set that bag to the side knowing there is much in that bag that affects who we are. It indeed has been a very tough year for everyone.

Memory and sense of self

So much of our sense of self, even our own reality, is anchored by our memories and the patterns of our behavior. Our actions and behaviors in everyday life serve to establish the pattern of our self. In sociological social psychology there is much to be said about social experiences that impact and sustain the self. It is amidst this process of socialization where I began to find answers to why “things just seem weird.” The impact of all the stressors “in that bag” has been to chip away at the memories rooted in our psyche. While this December the holiday season will result in a sadness we have not experienced, it is also a very common experience. Mindful people will adhere to public health guidance, and many of us will not see family in our common place of gathering for the first time in our lives. The holidays this year will seem quite “weird.” They will feel that way because how we will celebrate will be far different than what our memories will remind. 

Guardrails for life

Over time our everyday habits serve to establish guardrails for our lives. These everyday experiences serve to give us perspective into our own reality. Thus the life I live over the course of a day, of several days, of a week, of several weeks, and so on firmly establish my guardrails and sense of reality. For most people this makes life comfortable. Life is predictable. It’s a stability of living. 

When guardrails fall apart nearly overnight this can be characterized as an experience of trauma. Allow me to explore this further. Before covid-19 hit, I was going into work daily. I did this generally five days a week. For a moment though, consider the varied experiences I would engage in a given work day. I would wake up, get myself prepared for work, drive to work, park in the parking lot, walk into my building, go to my office, and go to class two to three times a day. Let us not underestimate the significance of the mundane, small things we do everyday and what that means for who we are. Now, magnify that everyday experience by five days a week, by four weeks a month, by a year. One can begin to see how this predictability of daily behavior could serve to establish my guardrails of everyday life. So when the impact of covid-19 hit, daily life changed in an instant. As of writing this piece, I’ve not been in a classroom since March 2020. I’ve been onsite at my workplace for a total of 20 minutes since that time. But, my work did not stop. I did not shut down. Instead I began to install new guardrails for work, this time in the comfort of my own home. I used to go to work to work. I used to go home for comfort. Since March my home has also served as my worksite. And my home has also served as the place of schooling for three children. My home has also served as our church. The comfort of home has not much served as the comfort of home. And I think this is a reality for a lot of people. This experience has been so profound that I have begun to consider the abrupt changes in everyday life as a form of trauma. 

So what does this experience, this trauma look like for a 6 year old? For a 13 year old? For an adult? For older folks? 

I do not use this word lightly. Trauma is an extremely powerful term. Trauma is generally defined as: “a deeply distressing or disturbing experience,” and “emotional shock following a stressful event or a physical injury, which may be associated with physical shock and sometimes leads to long-term neurosis.” One way to address trauma is to remove oneself from the situation, to relocate, to seek out a different environment. The difficulty doing that is regardless of where you go a similar trauma you're likely to find. The trauma I allude to above is not just my experience. It’s the experience of a lot of people. In fact some people have more experiences since March that provide even greater significance to the trauma. There’s a general collective experience going on here. Perhaps we should begin to consider the idea of a collective trauma. And, how does a society address collective trauma?

So consider the predictability of the guardrails of life. Prior to March of this year I had spent years on “building” my guardrails for work, for home, for church, for recreation, for my side business as a DJ, for how I relate to my spouse, to my children, to my family, to my friends. Each set of these guardrails was fundamentally changed in the matter of the month of March. How are we to live life without guardrails? Well, we adapt. With family and friends I’ve spoken much about the need to thrive during this crisis. Those words of advice included moving forward in one’s own way with what we are given to work with. I believe thriving requires realizing the catastrophe of the disruption of everyday life, and moving forward in ways of adaptation. This means adapting your home for work. It means doing your gatherings much more differently until it’s safe. For us that has meant using Zoom for gatherings. Adapting and thriving means building and establishing new guardrails. Adapting and thriving means doing the best you can. But it’s tiring. It’s exhausting. More recently I’ve been thinking about emotional dehydration.

In conclusion, this emotional dehydration and trauma can get better with time. A major obstacle of identifying and treating these “conditions” is the importance of time and space. The guardrails of life I mentioned earlier are anchored in our memory enhanced by time and space. So, it will get better once my work is back at work. Once my religious practice is back in a church. Once my “normal activities” can once again be resumed in normal context. Unless work, church, and my other activities completely change to a new normal, my guardrails will continue to be reduced to suggestions. So until things get back to normal, things will “just feel weird.” And we might be feeling weird for a little while longer.

Coronavirus: on lifting orders

First, I'm not at all into conspiracy. I am though very much into understanding personal and social phenomena with valid and reliable data. I've tried my adult life not to jump to conclusions without good information. In fact, in the face of no good information I'm quite comfortable saying "I don't know" or "based on the information I have..."

I also believe there is tremendous value in making decisions and living life in an informed, mindful manner.

Here's some food for thought. Be very careful how you interpret information being given out by organizations. Most are adept at "branding" and "messaging." That often means you are getting the information they present to you through a marketing filter. What you're being told is what they want you to know in the context of what's good for their organization.

For example: we're in lockdown/quarantine and there's discussion at the federal level about lifting those orders. Without on demand testing and/or a vaccine, what makes going out in public in crowds any different now than a month ago?

Also, there is some data available on infections, hospitalizations, and deaths. But, HOW and WHERE infections are occurring has not been made available to the public. Wouldn't you like to know if there are public places that are showing a trend for contraction of the coronavirus? For example, shouldn't we know if people are contracting the coronavirus by going to drive thrus or the grocery?

I present this food for thought because organizations and agencies are making decisions for you. Are those organizations operating in their best interests or your best interests? Are the decisions to be made based on finances or based on what's best for the health of their employees, clients, or even the general population?

Do your best to stay informed. Your health and the health of your family may depend on it.

New coronavirus (covid-19) cases in Daviess County, Kentucky

Update: December 15, 2020

In an effort to reach a broader audience, I've been providing regular covid-19 updates on a Facebook Page that I've created. Until further notice those updates are posted to the Facebook Page here: Owensboro: Managing Covid-19

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Update June 10, 2020

My last presentation of local coronavirus data included the addition of the moving average measure. That May 20 post indicated a previous two week decline of covid-19 cases in Owensboro-Daviess County.

Over the past 7-10 days national, state, and some local media have been reporting an increase in cases in several states, including Kentucky. This is precisely why it is important to look at this type of data at the local level.

As of yesterday (June 9th) Owensboro-Daviess County continues to see a stable, declined rate of new cases of coronavirus/covid-19.

*Note: data are not included for several days in late May and a few dates in early June. In late May Governor Andy Beshear 's office changed how they were holding covid-19 media briefings and how they were presenting new case data. I also cannot go back to review any press briefings to retrieve the missing information.

As a matter of record I'd also like to include a link and text of some comments made on Facebook after the Daviess County Judge Executive was brought into discussion. That Facebook post can be found here:  https://www.facebook.com/photo.php?fbid=10159064952081554&set=a.10151591660976554&type=3&theater

The main comment reply I'd like to include follows:

As I draft this comment I first want to note that Arnie tagged Al, not me. I'm not really seeking anything. I understand that so much data can lead to data overload. I'm a Sociologist and dealing with data is part of my profession. All I have done here is taken the only regularly publicly reported local data and graphed it over time. As has been well noted in the public health community, looking at data over time with this particular public health issue is important due to the time of contraction, dispersion, and contagious infection. When I began tracking this data longitudinally (over time) back in mid March there was no public source of Daviess County data available. You are correct Al, the hospital and public health department do post their data on their social media and online. I have not yet though seen it anywhere in longitudinal form. Daily data is certainly useful but what does daily data mean in the context of the previous day, the previous week, or the previous two weeks? And certainly those issues of where we stand in terms of a trend (currently being couched as a 14 day trend) are deemed critical in how political decisions are made regarding social distancing and reopening the economy and society. I asked early on for access to the data but the data at that time was believed to have not been accurate. I respected that conclusion and certainly did not want to get in the way of the very important work that needed to occur locally in the early stages of this pandemic. You and other stakeholders working closely on this issue may very well be discussing the trend among yourselves but I also feel it's very important for the community to see what is the trend. Trend data is being analyzed at the federal and state level. I personally want to know what is going on at the local level because what happens at the state and national level may not reflect local realities. Because I couldn't get access to local public data and because I understand the importance of looking at this longitudinally, I started tracking it with the data for which I had access.

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Update, May 14, 2020: trend data

Here's a look at the trend lines of 3 2 week segments (6 weeks) of new coronavirus cases in Daviess County.

It's a very stable line for the first four weeks, followed by a spike then a general downturn the past 7 days. This is encouraging.

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Update, April 25, 2020: trend data

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Update: As of April 25, 2020 there have been 205 deaths in Kentucky due to the coronavirus. Ninety five (95), or 46% of those deaths stem from people in long term care facilities.


Update: As of April 20, 2020 there have been 154 deaths in Kentucky due to the coronavirus. Fifty nine (59), or 38% of those deaths stem from people in long term care facilities.

Update: As of April 14, 2020, there have been 115 deaths in Kentucky due to the coronavirus. Thirty four (34), or 30% of those deaths stem from people in long term care facilities.

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Looking at data over time (longitudinally) helps us to track the trends in increase, stabilization, or decline in cases. Much of the federal and state level data looks at covid-19 cases longitudinally. Unfortunately, comprehensive, longitudinal public data about coronavirus cases in Owensboro-Daviess County does not exist.

I have collected the following information from watching and recording daily new cases as stated by Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear during daily press conferences beginning March 19, 2020.

Because the state data is sometimes updated the following data may or may not reflect exact official numbers for Daviess County.

I fully understand the variety of issues with testing and whether the new cases data accurately reflects the amount of coronavirus infections in the population. But, this is the only publically accessible data that can be examined for trends.

The "Projections" tab below contains the projection for hospitalizations in Daviess County.